CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-07-31T23:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-31T23:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26278/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen as a partial halo to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This feature overlaps multiple CME fronts to the SW. The source appears to be the southern portion of a large North-South s-shaped filament eruption along the central meridian of the Earth-facing disk. The southern portion of this filament appears to potentially lift off at about 2023-07-31T19:05Z roughly centered around S22E02. The northern portion of the filament eruption may be associated with another CME feature seen in the coronagraphs to the East. Arrival signature: Rapid magnetic field enhancement from 10 nT to 15-16 nT starting around 2023-08-04T06:52Z with simultaneous increases in solar wind velocity and temperature parameters. Possibly merged with 2023-07-31T23:36Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-04T06:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-04T06:15Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.5 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: -18.07 hour(s)
Difference: 0.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-08-05T00:56Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement